2021/5782
Sefer Daniel presents numbers and terms indicating the expected arrival time of Mashiach. The phrase “Idan Ve’Idanin Uplag Idan” of Daniel 7:25 might refer to three and a half “idans” or eras. Daniel 8:14 refers to 2,300 without mentioning if they are days, weeks, months of years. Daniel 12:12 refers to the number 1,335. Many use these numbers as a basis to calculate the Ketz, Mashiach’s estimated time of arrival.
One Approach to Calculating the Ketz
The Gemara (Sanhedrin 97b) condemns those who predict the date of Mashiach’s arrival “Tipach Atzman Shel Machshavei Keitzin SheHayu Omerim Keivan SheHigia Et HaKeitz VeLo Ba, Shuv Eino Ba. Ela Chakeh Lo, SheNe’Emar ‘Im Yitmahme’ah Chakeh Lo,’” “May those who calculate the end be cursed, because when the end that is calculated comes but Mashi’ach doesn’t come, they’ll say he is never coming. Rather wait for him, as it says ‘Even though it will delay, wait for him’”. The Gemara (Megilla 3a) relates that a Bat Kol rang out forbidding the great Tanna Rabi Yonatan ben Uzziel from composing a Targum to Ketuvim lest he reveal the Ketz (Mashiach ETA, which Rashi explains appears in Sefer Daniel). Masechet Derech Eretz (Perek HaYotzei 13) even says that those who try to calculate the Ketz are denied a share in Olam Haba! The Rambam (Hilchot Melachim 12:2) codifies these rejections of Ketz calculations.
There are serious problems with predicting Mashiach’s arrival date. If one errs, he has needlessly raised the hopes of our people, only to have them crushed when the great expectations are not realized. Moreover, people will not endeavor to improve themselves in order to merit Mashi’ach’s coming because they think it is inevitable. Once an authority interprets the Tanach as prophesying Mashiach’s definite arrival at a certain one no longer needs to work to merit his coming.
The Ibn Ezra
Of the major classic commentators to Sefer Daniel, Ibn Ezra is one of the few who do not try to calculate the arrival date of the Mashi’ach. Ibn Ezra (to Daniel 8:25) notes that the numbers indicating Mashi’ach’s arrival date are obscure to the point of being incomprehensible to human beings. Ibn Ezra notes that Daniel himself states (8:27) that he finds these dates incomprehensible. Moreover, he notes Daniel 12:8 states that these numbers are “inaccessible and sealed”. Only when Mashi’ach arrives our wise men will be able to in retrospect decipher the meanings of these numbers. [1]
Until the Ge’ulah, though, we are not able to and should not know the date of the Ge’ulah. Similarly, when the Torah in the Brit Bein HaBetarim sets forth the date of four hundred years for the redemption number, it was not understood until the time came. In retrospect, we understand the four hundred years as starting with the birth of Yitzchak Avinu. However, it was pointless for us until the redemption to calculate the date we will be saved.
When Yirmiyahu HaNavi sets forth the seventy years of redemption in retrospect we understand it as both as the seventy years of Babylonian rule (from 609 BCE to 539 BCE) and the seventy years from Nevuchadnetzar’s destruction of the Beit Hamikdash (586 BCE) until its being rebuilt with the support of Daryavesh the Persian in 516 BCE. In the midst of the suffering it is impossible to calculate. Therefore the Gemara (Megillah 11b-12a) states that Belshatzar, Achashveirosh and even Daniel misunderstood the terminus of the seventy year sentence.
One may ask, why then does Sefer Daniel present numbers that are incomprehensible. TABC Talmidim including Boaz Kapitanker and Gavi Kigner explain that it is to show that the suffering will not last forever. It will end at some definite time, although we do not know and we should not know when it will be.
Another Approach to the Calculating the Ketz – Rav Saadia Gaon, Rashi, Abarbanel and Malbim
Despite all the objections to calculating the Ketz, we are shocked and (perhaps even somewhat disturbed) to discover most of the major commentaries to Sefer Daniel offering specific dates for the Ketz by interpreting certain Pesukim in Sefer Daniel. The predicted dates arrive and pass without Mashiach coming but the predictions continue unabated. Rav Saadia Gaon predicts 988 C.E., Rashi predicts 1399 C.E., Abrabanel predicts 1505 C.E., and then Malbim predicts 1928 C.E.
Before we try to explain why the Mefarshim make these calculations, let us review the basics of the respective views. Rashi and Abarbanel focus on the phrase “Idan Ve’Idanin Uplag Idan” of Daniel 7:25 (which we refer to in the Zemer Baruch Hashem Yom Yom as “Kol Yemei Idani”). This phrase expresses the time we must wait until the final redemption. Rashi understands this phrase to mean one and half eras after the cessation of bringing the Korban Tamid in the second Beit HaMikdash which occurred in 64 C.E. (based on Daniel 12:8-13).
Rashi views an Idan/era as 890 years – the time from Yetzi’at Mitzrayim until the first Beit HaMikdash was destroyed. 1.5 eras are 1,335 years which when added to 64 C.E. is 1399 C.E. The number 1,335 also appears as a Ketz year in Daniel 12:12.
Abarbanel understands Idan as referring to 410 years, the numbers of years Bayit Rishon stood. “Idan Ve’Idanin Uflag Idan” refers to 3.5 “Idans” = 1435 years. The starting point is 70 C.E., the year of Churban Bayit Sheini. Result – the Ketz is 1505 C.E.
Calculations of Rav Saadia Gaon and the Malbim
Daniel Perek 8 Pesukim 23-25 speak of the rise of a brazen (Az-Panim) king. His reign of terror will end after a time period of 2300 according to Daniel 8:14 (the Pasuk does not specify if it is days or years). Rav Saadia Gaon interprets this as 2300 years from Yetziat Mitzrayim. [2] Yetziat Mitzrayim occurred (according to the Seder Olam) in the year 2448 from Creation. Mashiach’s arrival, accordingly, was scheduled for 4778 = 988 C.E.
Malbim counts the 2300 years from Daniel’s Nevuah in the year 3388. This comes to 5688 from Creation = 1928 C.E. “UVeZman 5688 SheHu Ad Erev Boker Alpayim VeShalosh Mei’ot Shanim Mei’Oto Shanah SheDibeir Imo HaMalach, BeShnat Shalosh LeBeilshatzar VeNitzdak Kadosh BeYuchzar Tamid Al Mechono,” “And in the year 5688, which is 2300 years from the year that the angel spoke with him, in Beilshatzar’s and the holiness ruled and the Tamid returned to its seder”.
Why these Mefarshim Make These Calculations
In exploring this issue in depth with my TABC Talmidim I asked for their suggested explanations as to why the Mefarshim make these calculations.
Elan Agus suggests that the Mefarshim are not trying to calculate the Ketz but simply trying to explain the Pesukim in Sefer Daniel.
Eitan Mermelstein observes that Rashi to Daniel 8:14 sets forth a critical point. Rashi writes that the Mefarshim are guessing since they do not fully understand the Pesukim. Sefer Daniel (8:26 and 12:9-10) states that these dates are actively hidden from understanding so we cannot achieve anything close to certainty in interpretation.
We suggest that the Mefarshim’s calculations are an expression of Tefilla to Hashem. They echo beautiful Pasuk (Tehillim 102:14): “Atah Takum Terachem Tzion Ki Et LeChenena Ki Va Mo’ed”, asking Hashem to redeem us since the Moed/Ketz/appointed time of Ge’ulah has arrived. By setting forth the various dates for Mashiach’s ETA, we strengthen our plea that the time for the ultimate redemption has arrived.
The best explanation seems to be that of Ezra Kopstick and Benzion Rotblat who suggest that these are times when there is potential for Mashi’ach to come. Indeed, the Gemara (Sanhedrin 94a) writes that Chizkiyahu HaMelech had the potential to be the Mashi’ach, but he failed to actualize his potential.
Rav Saadia Gaon, Rashi, Abrabanel, and Malbim may be interpreted as teaching that the dates they set forth are times ripe with potential for Mashi’ach’s arrival. If we are deemed worthy we will be redeemed. The great Mepharshim are informing us that it is incumbent upon ourselves to improve ourselves to the point at which we merit the Messianic age at these potential [3] arrival times.
Similarly, Sanhedrin 98a tells of Rabi Yehoshua ben Levi asking Mashi’ach when he will arrive. Mashi’ach answers “today”. After he did not arrive, Eliyahu HaNavi explains to Rabi Yehoshua ben Levi that Mashi’ach meant to say (HaYom Im B’Kolo Yishma’u) today, if we hear Hashem’s voice.
Conclusion
As we have frequently quoted, Tosafot (Yevamot 50a d”h Teida) teaches that Nevu’ah expresses potential but does not set the future in stone. The future can be changed by Teshuva, Tefillah and Tzedaka. Nevu’ah is hardly an abdication of responsibility. Quite the opposite is true. Nevu’ah is a summons to acting responsibly.
Postscript
Da’at Mikra and Rav Yaakov see Malbim’s interpretation of Mashi’ach’s arrival in 1928 as supporting the idea of the modern rejuvenation of Eretz Yisrael and the establishment of Medinat Yisrael as Reishit Tzemichat Ge’ulateinu, the beginning of the flowering of the dawn of our deliverance.
Moreover, some, including Rav Yitzchak Herzog, insist that there will not be a third Churban. For a full discussion of the basis of this opinion, and why some Religious Zionist authorities such as Rav Aharon Lichtenstein do not subscribe to this approach, see https://www.koltorah.org/halachah/does-the-torah-guarantee-the-survival-of-medinat-yisrael-part-one-by-rabbi-chaim-jachter.
However one views this topic, this interpretation of the Torah should not lead to an abdication of responsibility. As Tosafot makes absolutely clear, even an explicit Nevu’ah may not be fulfilled if we squander the opportunity.
[1] This brings to mind Shemot 33:23 where Hashem tells Moshe Rabbeinu that he can perceive Hashem only from the back but not from the front.
[2] The Ibn Ezra (Daniel 8:25) questions Rav Saadia Gaon. Ibn Ezra asks why the count begins with Yetzi’at Mitzrayim. Moreover, years are not mentioned in this context. It could possibly mean 2,300 days or weeks.
[3] TABC Talmid Yakov Abraham’s cogently asks how great the potential is. Is it highly likely Mashi’ach will arrive at these dates or merely a greater chance than usual? This is impossible to know, but intuitively when a Nevu’ah is issued it seems it has great potential to be actualized unless a drastic and quick change is made as occurred in Nineveh in the wake of Yonah’s prophecy that Nineveh will fall in forty days. However, the likelihood of a great commentary’s interpretation of a communication from Hashem, may be significantly less than an actual Nevu’ah.